Commodity Supply Chain · Demo
Bauxite Supply-Chain Monitor
Global aluminum smelters source 75% of their bauxite from Guinea, Indonesia, and Australia. This monitor follows the political-risk, infrastructure, and trade events shaping those three regions — sized for a conglomerate Group Risk team. Other demos →
Last refreshed: 2026-08-01 15:59 UTC · auto-refreshed every 24h
Executive brief
Guinea + Indonesia + Australia · weekly · last 7 days
- Volume
122 structured events and 1 story clusters across GIN + IDN + AUS, 2026-05-15 → 2026-05-21. - Casualties
No fatal incidents recorded in the window — narrative dominated by political and infrastructure events, not direct kinetic exchanges. - Macro context
LME Aluminum Spot +7.4% over the window (now 2589.0 USD/tonne). Move is consistent with elevated risk premium.
Bottom line · Sourcing posture: GIN + IDN + AUS all currently shipping; no Cat-1 supply disruption signal in the window. Maintain standard diversification.
Three-country panel · sourcing risk
Guinea
GIN
2
events / window
CBG · SMB · top global bauxite producer
Avg Goldstein2.8· Cooperative
−10 conflict0+10 cooperative
CAMEO+ rubric scores · avg over window
Propagation20%
Market sensitivity5%
Systemic importance30%
Articles
0
Avg Magnitude
3.0
Fatalities
0
Top actor · ECOWAS Court of Justice
Indonesia
IDN
60
events / window
PT Antam · refining build-out · export bans
Avg Goldstein2.5· Cooperative
−10 conflict0+10 cooperative
CAMEO+ rubric scores · avg over window
Propagation20%
Market sensitivity23%
Systemic importance35%
Articles
0
Avg Magnitude
4.5
Fatalities
0
Top actor · President Prabowo Subianto
Australia
AUS
60
events / window
Rio Tinto Weipa · Alcoa · stable supply
Avg Goldstein-0.4· Neutral
−10 conflict0+10 cooperative
CAMEO+ rubric scores · avg over window
Propagation22%
Market sensitivity24%
Systemic importance35%
Articles
1
Avg Magnitude
3.9
Fatalities
0
Top actor · Australian Government
Geographic picture
Loading geographic view...
Legend · circles = events (size = magnitude, color = Goldstein severity) · diamonds = story clusters (size = article count) · click any marker for detail.
LME aluminum spot · 30-day trend
LME Aluminum Spot
2589.0 USD/tonne▲ +7.4%
2026-03-222026-05-20
Source: Alpha Vantage via GDELT Cloud MCP macro_finance proxy.
What changed this week · structured events by sourcing country
Guinea
2 events
- sig 0.33POLITICAL043 · Host A Visit (+2.8)2026-05-15 · GuineaECOWAS Court of Justice holds offsite hearings in Conakry with seven casesECOWAS Court of JusticeGoldstein2.8Mag5.0Propagation10%Systemic40%
- sig 0.21CORPORATECO05 · Capital Allocation Event2026-05-16 · KenyaProparco invests $2 million in Cauridor to expand in AfricaProparco (France)→Cauridor (Guinea)Mag1.0Propagation30%Mkt sens10%Systemic20%
Indonesia
60 events
- sig 0.64BattlesAttack2026-05-21 · IndonesiaArmed separatists kill 8 miners in eastern Indonesia attackWest Papua National Liberation Army (TPNPB) (Indonesia)→CiviliansGoldstein-9.0
- sig 0.61ECONOMICEC04 · Trade Policy Action2026-05-20 · IndonesiaIndonesia export reform: Prabowo targets $150B, Bahlil exempts upstream oil-gasPresident Prabowo Subianto / Government of Indonesia (Indonesia)Mag6.0Propagation50%Mkt sens80%Systemic60%
- sig 0.60POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement (+8.0)2026-05-16 · IndonesiaPresident Prabowo inaugurates 1,061 Desa and Kelurahan cooperatives in IndonesiaIndonesia (Indonesia)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation20%Mkt sens35%Systemic42%
- sig 0.60POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement (+8.0)2026-05-16 · IndonesiaPrabowo inaugurates 166 SPPG units in 18 provinces for MBG programPresident Prabowo Subianto (Indonesia)→Satuan Pelayanan Pemenuhan Gizi (SPPG) / MBG program (Indonesia)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation20%Mkt sens30%Systemic50%
- sig 0.59POLITICAL062 · Cooperate Militarily (+7.4)2026-05-18 · IndonesiaPrabowo hands TNI new Rafale jets, missiles and A400M transport aircraftPresident of Indonesia Prabowo Subianto (Indonesia)→Indonesian National Armed Forces (TNI) (Indonesia)Goldstein7.4Mag8.0Propagation30%Mkt sens20%Systemic45%
Australia
60 events
- sig 0.70ECONOMICEC04 · Trade Policy Action2026-05-18 · AustraliaUS and Australia sign $8.5 billion agreement for rare mineralsUnited States (United States)→Australia (Australia)Mag6.0Propagation70%Mkt sens90%Systemic80%
- sig 0.60ECONOMICEC04 · Trade Policy Action2026-05-18 · AustraliaAustralia orders Chinese investors to sell stakes in rare earths firm over national securityAustralian Government (Australia)→China-linked shareholders in Northern Minerals (China)Mag5.0Propagation55%Mkt sens65%Systemic65%
- sig 0.57POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement (+8.0)2026-05-15 · AustraliaEducation union agrees Victorian teachers’ pay rises up to 32%Australian Education Union (Victorian branch) (Australia)→Victorian government (Australia)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation15%Mkt sens20%Systemic45%
- sig 0.55POLITICAL057 · Sign Formal Agreement (+8.0)2026-05-15 · AustraliaSurvivors Law passes in New South Wales, exposing abusers’ assets to victimsParliament of New South Wales (Australia)Goldstein8.0Mag8.0Propagation10%Mkt sens10%Systemic40%
- sig 0.55INFRASTRUCTUREIN03 · Supply Chain Disruption2026-05-21 · AustraliaAustralia green-lights a “globally significant” rare earths mineArafura Rare Earths (Australia)Mag4.0Propagation60%Mkt sens60%Systemic70%
Top story clusters · article reach across all three countries
Commodity news · web research sidebar
Reuters (sample)· 2026-05-16
Guinea bauxite exports rebound after junta lifts restrictions
Bauxite shipments from Guinea recovered 18% month-over-month after the transitional government relaxed export controls imposed earlier this year...
Nikkei Asia (sample)· 2026-05-11
Indonesia mining ministry signals new aluminum smelter incentives
Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is preparing tax incentives for domestic aluminum smelters to capture more downstream value...
Bloomberg (sample)· 2026-05-07
LME aluminum stocks at 18-month low; Hindalco signals capacity expansion
LME warehouses are holding aluminum at the lowest level since late 2024, with Hindalco Industries hinting at a 200kt annual capacity expansion at its Mahan smelter...
How this demo is built: three independent country queries to /api/v2/events + /api/v2/stories, merged in JSX. LME aluminum overlay from the GDELT Cloud MCP macro_finance snapshot. Standalone Python repo: github.com/gdelt-cloud/demos.